There have been plenty of illustrations now about the deception of 90% to 99% Covid-19 vaccine effectiveness (VE).
There is also now plenty enough real-world, empirical data to assess the effectiveness of the COVID-19 vaccine overall as a public health tool.

By Joel Smalley – Quantitative Data Analyst

In respect of COVID-19 cases, it is clear that there have been substantially more this year, post-vax, than there were last year.

At least it looks like cases are no longer rising like they did last year into the “season”.

Is this because of the vaccine?

Well, most of the cases are in the vaccinated. Of course, most of the population is vaccinated.

So, are there really more cases in the unvaccinated?

No.

The rate of cases in the fully vaccinated is directly proportional to the vaccinated population.

OK, but with 90% to 99% effectiveness in reducing severe illness, we should see substantially less vaccinated in hospital than unvaccinated, relative to cases, right?

Well, the shapes of the curve don’t look like the vaccinated are doing any better.

But what about the Covid-19 vaccine effectiveness?

There’s about a 13% to 19% absolute difference in vaccinated proportion of COVID-19 hospitalisations and vaccinated population, so, yes, perhaps there is evidence of reduced severity.

[Never mind there are substantially more hospitalisations than last year.]

More importantly, can we see the same vaccine effectiveness in deaths?

Nope. No obvious difference in the slopes of the curves except the unvaccinated appears less severe.

And relative to the vaccinated population?

Nope. Exactly the same, just like cases. No evidence whatsoever that there are relatively fewer vaccinated COVID-19 deaths than the vaccinated population.

Again, fortunately deaths appear to be declining compared to last year when they were rising. Great news!

Can we attribute this to the vaccine? No, because the vaccinated are not doing any better than the unvaccinated. Maybe (just maybe), it’s background natural immunity? And in terms of overall public health, have “we” put a lid on excess deaths?

Alas not.

The current situation is significantly worse than last year or many previous years in fact for the time of year.

And it’s not COVID-19.