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Government paper proves Lockdown will NOT end in 2021


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A paper published by the University of Warwick, titled ‘Covid-19 vaccine impact forecast’ proves that lockdown will not end this year.

The paper was presented in a SAGE meeting on the 14th January 2021 and has been deemed to have “provided the government with rapid evidence during an emergency”. The document which can be found here presents updated results from a computer model developed to predict the impact of vaccination on Covid-19 cases (please don’t tell us it’s another Neil Ferguson model?). The paper claims the model was also updated to include the effect of the “new more infectious Covid strain” that has been “identified” in the UK.

The findings of the paper are extremely grim, but also predictable. You didn’t honestly believe the government would give you your freedom back after so easily giving it away, did you?

The paper states the following “findings” –

‘We present a range of different scenarios for the vaccination period up until full release of NPIs. Even in the best case assumptions for vaccine efficacy, vaccination alone proves insufficient to allow complete NPI release within the year without significant further disease burden.’

An NPI is a non-pharmaceutical intervention – a.k.a lockdown. So there’s the first piece of evidence lockdown will not end this year.

‘With the new aggressive covid strain, likely transmission efficacies prove insufficient to prevent further infection outbreaks across the population. This means that the proportion of individuals that do not accept the vaccine together with the proportion for whom it is ineffective in protecting, may still account for significant further severe disease even after the program is completed.’

Here’s your second piece of evidence lockdown won’t end, but they’re getting their excuses in early to blame it on the “anti-vaxxers”.

We see that even with the highest possible uptake and fastest vaccination program, full relaxation by the time schools return in September would still result in significant further disease. Relaxation to much reduced measures allowing schools to operate by then seems realistic however.

Here’s your third piece of evidence lockdown won’t end, but they are probably going to allow children to return to school.

The paper goes on to ask ‘Can vaccination deliver an escape by September?’- in short the answer they give is ‘No’. But here’s the spin they decided to give it –

Under our default efficacy assumptions the best that may be done to allow complete release of NPIs as soon as possible would be by increasing both uptake and delivery speed to the greatest possible extent. In figure 5 we consider uptake increased to 95% for both doses together with the optimistic delivery speed of 3M doses per week from February. It is seen that a gradual relaxation up until September will still result in significant further disease burden even under this best case. Unfortunately, with the new aggressive strain, a 60% transmission efficacy is insufficient to prevent further infection outbreaks across the population. This
means those that the 5% that still do not receive the vaccine and the ≈ 12% for whom it is ineffective will still account for significant further severe disease
.’

So there you have it, the current computer model being used to predict the outcome of the experimental gene therapy programme, that the authorities have dubbed as the “vaccine” programme, shows that lockdown will not end in 2021. And it is this very paper and model that the UK Government is using to impose dictatorial tyranny on the British people.


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